5 reasons why the Leafs will come back and beat the Lightning … and one reason why they won’t

What a disaster. What a complete, utter disaster.

There’s no other way to describe Toronto’s 7-3 lopsided loss to Tampa Bay in Game 1 of the playoffs.

This was a nightmare. About as bad as you could imagine.

Blame the refs if you want. Or the goaltending. Or the ghosts of Harold Ballard.

But there were no excuses for this.

The Maple Leafs had waited a full year to redeem themselves after last year’s first-round loss to the Lightning. And yet, when the puck dropped on Tuesday, Toronto came out looking sleepy. And sloppy. And overwhelmed and over-matched in almost every way possible.

Down 3-0 after the first period, the Leafs were rightfully booed off the ice. In the second period, Tampa Bay lost Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak to an injury. But even without two of their top-4 defencemen — as well as a top-six winger, who also got hurt and left the game — the Lightning made it 6-2 as fans serenaded the home team with boos heading into the final intermission.

By then, the game was practically over. The only question was how ugly the score — and the cheapshots —  would get.

And whether Toronto can rebound from this for Game 2.

As Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said: “The Leafs might win the series. They might. There’s so much runway left in this.”

Here are 5 ways the Leafs can win the series … and one reason why they won’t:

The Lightning D are banged up

There is a chance that we may have seen the last of Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak. At the very least, both defenceman should be less than 100% for Game 2. That’s a huge blow for a team that is defensively weaker than it was a year ago. Hedman is a minute-muncher and one of the best in the league. Cernak is a beast. While the Leafs couldn’t take advantage of Tampa Bay’s decimated blue line in Game 1, expect a different outcome for Game 2.

Ilya Samsonov isn’t usually this bad

When asked about his uncharacteristic performance in Game 1, Samsonov didn’t mince words. “I was shit,” said the Leafs goalie. We couldn’t have summed it up any better. Samsonov might not be an equal to Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy, but he is better than what we saw in Game 1. It wasn’t just that Samsonov allowed soft goals. It was that he allowed them to start and end the periods. That can’t happen. And it usually doesn’t. For the Leafs to win, they don’t need Samsonov to stand on his head. They just need him to keep the Lightning to less than three goals, something he did all year long.

We haven’t seen the best out of Auston Matthews

Lost in the narrative of the Game 1 loss was the play of Auston Matthews. Yeah, he had a pair of assists. But he wasn’t great, at least by his standards. With a contract extension looming, you can expect that Matthews will be motivated to take over the series. He’ll have to, if the Leafs are going to rebound for Game 2.

Game 1 jitters are now out of their system

This one was ugly. It was also a by-product of a year’s worth of build up, anticipation and pressure. Seriously, how tight were the Leafs? How tight was the crowd? Everyone seemed to be waiting for something to go wrong. And when it did, it snowballed out of controlled. Now that they’ve got this stinker out of their system, they can flush it and move on.

On paper, Toronto is the better team

Say what you want about the Lightning and their ability to go to three straight Stanley Cup finals. But this is an older team. It’s also a thinner team than in previous years. On paper, the Leafs are better in almost every category. Their talent or depth or leadership might not have been on display in Game 1, but this is where the addition of a guy like Ryan O’Reilly can pay dividends. O’Reilly has won a Cup. He’s been playoff MVP. He’s been in this spot before. Whether it’s in the dressing room or on the ice, you can expect a proper response out of Toronto’s leaders for Game 2.

… and here is the No. 1 reason why the Leafs are done

Because they are the Leafs. Seriously, have you not been paying attention? Losing is their destiny. Get used to it.

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